(un)informed confusion
~ and other odd oddities ~

8.18.2007

Another reason to avoid LA

Your plane might explode.

Officials said the WestJet Boeing 737, carrying 136 passengers, came within 15 metres of colliding with a 150-seat Northwest Airlines Airbus A320 that was taking off.
[...]
The "runway incursion" was the eighth such incident at LAX this year, matching the total for all of 2006.


According to my calculations, the approximate chance you might almost die* from a plane collision in 2007 at LAX1 is:

1 in 58,157

(or about 0.001719 percent)


-------------------

1656,842 aircraft movements in 2006 at LAX (Source: Airports Council International) = approx. 465,263 aircraft movements by August 15, 2007, presuming no significant change in airport traffic between 2006 and 2007. Divided by eight incidences of near-death = 58,157.
*Presuming 100% death rate upon collision.

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posted by C. LaRoche at 05:01

3...thoughts from my fellow Saturnalians:

  • 0.001719 per cent chance of exploding on an LA runway. I'll take those odds. I'd bet they're better than my odds of surviving crossing the street unmaimed.

    By Anonymous Anonymous, at Sat Aug 18, 07:09:00 p.m. ADT  

  • True, but death by runway inferno and death by crossing the street are not mutually exclusive probabilities. That is, there's no zero-sum game going on here between your need to cross the street (x) and your need to take a flight to/from LAX (y), since you're not likely to be able to substitute an international flight for a j-walk. Unless you are superman.

    If we consider "chances of death by transportation" to be "d", we're looking at a x + y = d equation, not x OR y.

    By Blogger C. LaRoche, at Sat Aug 18, 09:40:00 p.m. ADT  

  • You reprehensible algebraist.

    By Anonymous Anonymous, at Mon Aug 20, 02:24:00 p.m. ADT  

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