Nostradamus: BRB

Subtitle: A Non-Prediction Prediction About Tomorrow's Election

As Hendrik Hertzberg writes in this week's New Yorker, all the polls, predictions, and analyses of the American political theatre would indicate that a cast change may be waiting backstage in the 2006 midterm elections. The Republicans have never sat so high and stooped so low, losing precious political applause over Iraq, Katrina, a slew of inner-courtyard scandals, and the altogether scattershot public relations of a (literally) shotgun-happy administration.

The Democrats, for their part, have never had a better opportunity to upstage their curtained competition. Since the Reagan era, the Democratic Party has mostly been the understudy of the U.S. political system, failing to gain simultaneous control of both the legislative and executive branches of the American government for any more than the first two years of Clinton's run as President. But the lead actor is now sick, and governance of the entire U.S. Congress — something the Dems haven't been within earshot of since 1994 — is within the Party's sights.

If a quick reading of the national political dialogue in the U.S. is to indicate anything, the Democrats should gain one if not both houses by Wednesday morning.

But polls, as Hertzberg warns, only indicate so much.

The real race may in fact be, well, the real race — the race between each individual candidate in each individual Congressional district and State. Voters may err from the national line if they feel they should vote for one candidate over another. Ineffective Democratic contenders may simply appear unelectable to middle-of-the-run voters, especially next to Republican candidates who may have actually done something for their constituents over the last 12 years. This certainly won't be the case everywhere, but it may prevent the American electorate from turning the house over to Dean, Clinton, Kerry & Co. by the end of tomorrow night.

All this goes without saying; it does not mention that vast rural skew of the U.S. electoral system — now mostly painted Republican Red — that ensures urbanite Democrats will have to win a sweeping popular majority to even budge their seat count.

(An example: the current crop of Democratic Senators — 45 of them — represent more Americans than do all 55 Republican Senators).

Predictions made by outside parties, unless they involve bets, create strategies, or alter player conduct, are mostly rhetorical chaff — inevitably, the winner of tomorrow's election will win, regardless of what I write here. This post, likewise, will then become nothing more than an irrelevant curiosity amidst the post-election blogging landscape, what I may or may not have thought about an event beyond my control ground into the static earth by the great, unstoppable wheel of time.

If the polls are right, we could see a Democratic renaissance in the American legislature. If my gut feeling is right, and voters stick to the issues that pertain more to their individual fiefdoms than national ones, the renaissance may be put off by more annual rounds of GOP inquisition. Or two.

I suppose we will just have to have some patience.

谢谢。