Blatant Self-Promotion Vol. III - Letter in the Post

The National Post was kind enough to print a letter I sent to them earlier this week. Kudos to Richard, who has an online subscription and could check up on the paper for me (for those of you outside N.S.: the Post no longer delivers east of Quebec City. Apparently they made no money off of Canada's far east... capitalist roaders...).

Here it is, from Thursday's issue. The last two paragraphs are sliced-and-diced a little, but it otherwise accurately conveys what I meant:

What do we do about North Korea?
Re: Kim Jong-Il’s Explosive Mistake, editorial, Oct. 10.

This editorial does a fine job of highlighting the various problems presented by attacking or ignoring North Korea’s burgeoning nuclear program. Unfortunately, it leaves much to be desired in terms of diplomatic solutions. While a concerted, international plan for regime change in North Korea sounds like a novel idea, it may not be so novel in practice.

Kim Jong-Il’s regime has proven resilient to international sanctions, no matter how “crippling” their nature. In fact, increasingly aggressive behaviour from external aggressors only further legitimizes the country’s unyielding belief in Juche, a siege-mentality of sorts that stresses international isolation, economic autarky and Kim Jong-Il’s own cult of personality.

A carrots-for-compliance, sticks-fornon-compliance approach has a better track record. The 1994 Agreed Framework successfully limited North Korea’s nuclear program for nearly a decade. And it fell apart not because North Korea had any latent desire to cheat, but because a similarly non-compliant United States gave North Korea room to so.

It would make little sense for Pyongyang to give up its nuclear arms, the only real hand it can play at the international table. But concentrating only on regime change, as your editorial suggests, would be at best futile, at worst dangerous. If North Korea is to be gradually opened up to the world, short-term co-operation with North Korea on the nuclear issue will be necessary.

On the other hand, if North Korea is to undergo a “hard landing,” in which it collapses, South Korea and China will have to be convinced that it is in their best interests to ruin the North Korean economic system. The country will attempt to stay afloat by selling its nuclear technologies, WMDs and missiles to anyone who will buy. And, in his dying hour, Kim Jong-Il may very well push every red button he has.

Christopher LaRoche, MA researcher,
Dalhousie University, Halifax.

再见。